Transitional strategies for the reduction of "greenhouse gas" emission in the United States electric power sector

Environmental issues have become increasingly important in the political arena, particularly with growing concern over the "greenhouse effect," a potential global climatic warming caused by increases in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. The United States alone accounts for 25% of the worldwide emissions of CO2, the most important of the greenhouse gases. The generation of electric power is responsible for one-third of United States CO2 emissions in addition to emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, also greenhouse gases. In the long term, strategies to reduce such emissions will probably concentrate on non-fossil fuel sources, such as nuclear energy, solar energy, or biomass. Near term strategies for the reduction of these emissions, important because of lengthy time lags in the climate system, must concentrate on existing technologies. These strategies must also be compatible with other environmental and societal goals. This study examines the emission reduction potential in two regions of the United States electric power industry. Utility accepted models and data have been utilized to minimize concern over structural simplifications and parametric errors. Seven potential strategies were examined to determine their effectiveness for the reduction of CO2 emissions. The costs and additional environmental effects of these strategies were also calculated. The study finds that some carbon emissions, and large amounts of other environmental emissions, can be reduced at little or no cost. Larger amounts of emissions reductions appear to be possible at higher cost. The trade-offs between cost and emissions reduction are quantified to facilitate strategy choice. Processes for the selection of economically feasible and politically acceptable climate change policies, through the use of such analyses, are discussed.Supported by the MIT Center for Energy Policy Research, the Hugh Hampton Young Fellowship Committee, the Bernard Rabinowitz Fellowship Committee, the Alfred Keil Fellowship Committee and the MIT Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development